摘要

SARS-CoV-2疫苗接种模型用于安全手术以挽救生命:来自一项国际前瞻性队列研究的数据

作者(年代):Sathish Muthu

背景:术前接种SARS-CoV-2疫苗可以支持更安全的择期手术。疫苗数量有限，因此本研究旨在通过建模来确定疫苗的优先级。方法:主要结果是1年内预防一例covid -19相关死亡所需的疫苗接种数量(NNV)。nnv基于一项国际队列研究(外科患者)的术后SARS-CoV-2发病率和死亡率，以及社区SARSCoV-2发病率和病死率数据(普通人群)。NNV估计值按年龄(18-49岁、50-69岁、70岁或以上)和手术类型分层。最佳和最坏情况被用来描述不确定性。结果:NNVs在外科患者中比一般人群更有利。最有利的nnv发生在70岁或以上需要癌症手术的患者中(351例;最好196例，最坏816例)或非癌症手术(733例;最好情况407，最坏情况1664)。 Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favorable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.