文摘

数学模型及其应用研究房价问题

作者(年代):马Yanbing梁,永生,赵烁

房地产价格与国民经济和人民生活密切相关,它也有一个对国家经济发展和社会稳定产生巨大的影响。随着房价不断增加,这个问题已经成为一个焦点问题,吸引公众的注意力。本文将预测在未来几年房价及其合理性。我们正在讨论的问题可以归结为一个二元线性回归问题。人均可支配收入和建筑成本是影响房地产价格的主要因素。我们把北京、安徽和宁夏作为研究对象。采用中国统计年鉴数据的正态分布,我们得到了线性回归方程。在方程,当地平均房价作为因变量,家庭可支配收入和建设成本是独立的变量。方程的平均房价在北京:日元= -8114.517 + 1.004 x11。方程的平均房价在安徽:y2 = 265.941 - 0.025 x12 + 0.001将。 Equation of average house price in Ningxia: y3 = -2826.025 - 0.203x13 + 0.013x23. To predict house price in the next few years, we need to firstly identify per capita disposable income and building costs. Per capita disposable income has strict linear relationship with year. While linear relationship between building costs and year is unconspicuous with little data. In order to improve the accuracy of the prediction, we can use grey forecasting to predict building costs in the futur. We can make a judgment at the rationality of house price based on the Housing Price-to-Income Ratio of the 3 areas. It shows that house price in Beijing is quite unreasonable as it is beyond local people’s burden level. As for Anhui and Ningxia, house price is also too high to be reasonable.