文摘

气候变化对地下水的影响建模使用一个集成的方法:摩洛哥? ? ?年代的案例研究

作者(年代):El Assaoui N和Sadok,

气候变化预测从IPCC(政府间气候变化专门委员会)报告和提供不同的研究,到2100年,摩洛哥将面临减少10 - 30%的平均年降雨量和年平均气温的增加1�2�C。含水层? ? ?年代过度开采由于水需求的增加,城市,农业和工业的发展;和气候变化对地下水资源产生负面影响。因此,不同的结果预测:自然补给减少,水质下降,盐度入侵。相关的科学知识的过程对气候变化对地下水资源的影响仍然是国内和国际的不足。这是由于特别:数据库两个定量和定性的不足;气候模型预测的精度不足特别是降雨及其对气候场景的选择;精度不足的方法来评估地下水补给;建模的难度地表水/地下水的交互。 The assessment of climate change impacts on groundwater resources requires reliable predictions of climate variables; a good estimation of groundwater recharge; and modeling of the aquifer???s hydrodynamic response to climate change scenarios. This research aims to improve assessment of climate change impacts on Moroccan???s groundwater resources, using a global methodology. The proposal approach was based on national and international benchmark, and outcomes derived from Berrechid aquifer???s studies which is among many vulnerable Moroccan???s aquifers to climate change and water scarcity. The results of simulations showed a decline of water table of this aquifer even for optimistic IPCC scenarios: SRES-B1 (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) or RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathways). Berrechid aquifer was considered as case study to improve this global methodology based on a link of different aspects (climate, hydrologic, and flow groundwater), to assess future impacts of climate change on groundwater resources in Morocco.